Proven engine, fuel already in the tank: a working growth driver plus already-held means to multiply it
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NO我们根据提供的通话记录来判断。问题问的是管理层是否在同一个业务部分上描述了(1)一个已经证明、正在产生增长且仍有很大空间的引擎,以及(2)公司已经拥有的扩大该引擎的手段,并且二者是连贯的现在时叙述。 在通话中,Benjamin Fink 提到了“Delaware Basin”的增长,但更具体的是“water services”和“Ramsey facility”。他说:“Our Ramsey facility is currently running above nameplate capacity and we continue to see strong demand for our water services.” 这表示水服务已经在产生实际业务,且超过设计产能,但这是否意味着“只捕获了一小部分机会”?他说“we continue to see strong demand”,但没有明确说相对于房间还小。另外,关于扩大手段,他说:“We have also lowered the midpoint of our 2018 maintenance capital range, while keeping our total capital expenditures outlook unchanged.” 以及关于2019年:“we expect significant organic growth in adjusted EBITDA of at least 20%; and second, our capital expenditures will significantly decline.” 但没有明确说这些资本是用于扩大水业务的。他也没有明确说水业务的机会有多大,只提到“strong demand”。 再仔细看,在回答关于水业务的问题时,Jaime Casas说:“as the water volumes continue to increase we would expect that margin on average to continue to decline. But just because the water business even though it's – it generates higher returns, it's lower margin business on dollar per barrel basis.” 然后Ben说:“It's a gather business instead of the long haul transportation business.” 后来在回答关于水占比时,有人说:“Today, we have 120,000 barrels capacity on the water business. We expect that to grow to about 180 by the end of next year and then it's going to be a function of how that ramps up relative to the crude and NGL you know businesses and lines we have. It's in the 20% to 25% range today.” 这里提到了水业务容量从12万桶增长到18万桶,这是扩大手段,且是“expect”未来,但这是计划,不是已在进行?他们说了“we expect that to grow”,但这是预期,不是已经拥有的资源?实际上,容量是已有的吗?他们说“capacity”,但增长是预期。以及“by the end of next year”是未来。 问题要求“ALREADY IN THE COMPANY'S HANDS”且“already underway or already resourced”。这里说“expect that to grow”是计划,不是已经发生。而且也没有明确说水业务只捕获了小部分机会。 另外,整个通话中,管理层主要强调Delaware Basin的增长,但并没有明确说一个具体引擎只捕获了很少部分。他们提到了“Ramsey facility”超负荷,但超负荷意味着已经接近满,而不是小部分。所以可能不满足(1)的“captured only a small part”。 还有,关于“2019 guidance”他们只是说“at least 20% growth”,但没有说这是来自哪个具体引擎。 因此,答案应该是NO。
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| TNET | TriNet Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-26 | C |
| APYX | Apyx Medical Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C |
| HUYA | HUYA Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-19 | C |
| GIII | G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | Q4 2024 | 2024-03-14 | C |
| NICE | NICE Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | B+ |
| OUT | Outfront Media Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-21 | C+ |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-21 | C+ |
| DXCM | DexCom, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-08 | B+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| APAM | Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| RVLV | Revolve Group, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | Q3 2023 | 2023-10-31 | B |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| PTLO | Portillo's Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-05 | B |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| AFL | Aflac Incorporated | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| NMR | Nomura Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-02 | D |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-07 | B |
| M | Macy's, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-02 | D |
| TGT | Target Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-28 | C |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-20 | B |
| WGO | Winnebago Industries, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-12-16 | D |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| SYY | Sysco Corporation | Q1 2023 | 2022-11-01 | C+ |
| KEY | KeyCorp | Q3 2022 | 2022-10-20 | B+ |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-13 | B+ |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane Incorporated | Q1 2023 | 2022-08-02 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| UPWK | Upwork Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-27 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | Q4 2022 | 2022-06-22 | B |
| SE | Sea Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-17 | F |
| FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-14 | B+ |
| ZVIA | Zevia PBC | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | B |
| IRTC | iRhythm Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-07 | C+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-02 | B |
| FLUX | Flux Power Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-10 | D |
| VVV | Valvoline Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-02-09 | C+ |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| SLQT | SelectQuote, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-07 | F |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-17 | B+ |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | A |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| CPRX | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | C+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EEX | Emerald Holding, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-01 | C+ |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-13 | A |
| CMTL | Comtech Telecommunications Corp. | Q1 2019 | 2018-12-07 | B+ |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | Q3 2019 | 2018-11-20 | A |
| ALB | Albemarle Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-08 | B |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| AGIO | Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-01 | C |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | B+ |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| T | AT&T Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | Q2 2018 | 2018-06-28 | C+ |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-13 | B+ |
| NOVT | Novanta Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-05-12 | B+ |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
| TOUR | Tuniu Corporation | Q4 2017 | 2018-03-14 | D |
| UPLD | Upland Software, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-03-08 | C+ |
| FI | Fiserv, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-27 | C |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Q4 2017 | 2018-01-16 | A |
| MITK | Mitek Systems, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-07 | C+ |
| UAA | Under Armour, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-31 | F |
| IR | Ingersoll-Rand Plc | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | B |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-20 | B |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-03 | B |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
| WK | Workiva Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-03-01 | B |
NMR · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is whether management describes BOTH a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...YES The transcript shows management describing the Retail business as a growth engine that's already producing real results (net revenue up 22%, income up 133% after reorganization in March, recurring and flow revenue benefits starting to appear) but still small relative to its room (only 1,600 partners deployed out of a much larger potential base, with Q-on-Q progress negative from uncontacted clients, and explicit statements like "if we can broaden our partner base, then we will start to see the benefit" and "we have not been able to contact all clients").
OWL · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management describes BOTH a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...YES The transcript shows management describing Direct Lending as a proven growth engine already producing real activity ($5.1 billion gross deployments in the quarter, $31 billion AUM) while still small relative to its opportunity (explicitly "very small relative to total market opportunity" with a $300 billion market and $1. 5 trillion PE dry powder). They connect this directly to the means already in hand: existing sponsor relationships (500), $8.
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe BOTH of a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...