Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes customers switching from an entrenched alternative to their product, and that this switching is still in early stages with most potential switchers not yet converted. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is Enovis, with segments Recon (reconstructive) and P&R (prevention and recovery). They discuss growth, share gains, and acquisitions. Key points: - In Recon, they mention "continued share gain" and "double-digit growth and share gain on the Recon side". They talk about "share gain" but not specifically about displacing an incumbent. They mention "we have a strong pipeline of innovation in Recon that we believe will allow us to continue to take share for many years to come." That suggests they are taking share, but is it from an entrenched alternative? They don't specify a particular competitor or legacy product. They talk about their products like EMPOWR Revision Knee, ARVIS 2.0, Evolve34 Lapidus Correction System. They say "We've had terrific feedback from surgeons on all 3 of these great new products." But no explicit mention of customers switching from an incumbent. - In P&R, they mention "share gain" and "MotionMD clinic conversions". That could be switching from something else, but not clearly described as displacing an entrenched alternative. - The Lima acquisition is about expanding their business, not about customers switching. - They talk about "share gain" in general, but not about a specific substitution phenomenon where customers are moving from an old way to their new way in large numbers with most still to convert. The question asks: "does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON — abandoning or displacing an incumbent supplier, a legacy product or technology, an older method, or an established way of doing things in order to adopt what this company sells — AND does management convey that this switching is still in its early stages, with most of the potential switchers not yet converted?" Looking at the transcript, management talks about "share gain" but does not explicitly describe a substitution phenomenon. They mention "we continue to demonstrate some growth through MotionMD clinic conversions" – that might be clinics converting to their system, but it's not clear if that's displacing an incumbent.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
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BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.