Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes customers switching from an entrenched alternative to the company's product, and that this switching is still early with most potential switchers not yet converted. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is Live Oak Bancshares, an SBA lender. They talk about their business model, technology, etc. Key points: They are moving to a cloud infrastructure, they have Apiture (a fintech platform), they are building a new core. They mention that they are the largest SBA lender. They talk about competition and not chasing bad pricing. They mention that they are holding more loans on balance sheet instead of selling. They talk about expense management. Is there any mention of customers switching from an incumbent? Possibly in the context of their technology platform? They mention Apiture has 549 bank customers, and SunTrust invested. But that's about banks using their platform. Are they describing that banks are switching from legacy systems to their new API-first environment? They say "mid next year we intend to be in the market with a combination of everything Finxact, Apiture and Payrailz to offer a fully API first environment." That's future. They also mention that they have been building this. But do they describe that customers are currently switching? They mention that Apiture has 549 bank customers, but that's not necessarily switching from an incumbent; it's just adoption. They don't say that these banks are abandoning a legacy system to use Apiture. They don't describe a substitution pattern. Also, they talk about their own bank's technology, but not about customers switching to them from another provider. They talk about their deposit platform, but again, not about switching. The question is about customers switching to the company's product from an entrenched alternative. The company's product is banking services (loans, deposits). Are they describing that small business borrowers are switching from other banks to Live Oak? They talk about competition and that they are not chasing bad pricing. They say "we will not do that" regarding certain loan terms. They don't say that customers are switching to them because of a better product. They say they are the largest SBA lender, but that doesn't imply switching. They mention that they have brought on general lenders with pipelines.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.