Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. Look for statements about scarcity of their own products, capacity, etc., and management's response. From transcript: In CM&C, they mention "Higher global demand for carbon-based products in a tightened raw material supply has put upwards pressure on pricing" - that's about raw materials, not their own product. But they also say "the pricing environment for our products has never been stronger" and "raw material supplies tight" - but that's about inputs. However, they also say "we're working creatively to figure out how we can participate in a very very bullish market for our products" - that suggests they are trying to meet demand, not letting scarcity work in their favor. They also mention "The limiting factor for us is going to be -- and really, the industry is going to be how we supply it because there is only so much coal-tar to go around." That suggests they are supply-constrained, but do they say they are letting that tighten availability to buyers? They say "we are more or less confined to only being able to supply what we have the ability to produce" - that is a constraint, but do they describe responding with price increases or selectivity? They mention "we continue to take cost out of our infrastructure" and "we're working creatively to figure out how we can participate" - that sounds like they are trying to expand or meet demand, not letting scarcity work in their favor. They also mention "we have several good ideas that we're working on" - that suggests they are trying to increase supply. In RUPS, they mention "reduced availability of hardwoods in the commercial market due competing demands" - that is about raw materials (hardwood) for their product, not their own product. They also mention "we've fully transitioned our major customer to the treated type sales program" - that is a business model change. In PC, they mention "higher raw material cost" and "unfavorable sales mix" - not about their own product scarcity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.