Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The transcript discusses three platforms: GCU Online, GCU traditional campus, and GCE/Orbis. For GCU Online: They mention enrollment challenges due to COVID, but that's about demand being lower, not scarcity. They talk about new enrollments declining, but that's not about availability tightening. They mention high retention and reentry rates, but that's not about scarcity. For GCU traditional campus: They say "GCU is also currently at near capacity for residential enrollment." They built three new residence halls, but they will be at capacity, and they will have to build at least two more to meet demand. This suggests that the campus is near capacity, meaning availability is tight. They also mention that they are meeting or exceeding enrollment goals. They say "GCU actually built three new residence halls this year, believing that they wouldn’t need to build any new residence halls the following year. Not only will the residence halls be at capacity this year, GCU will have to build at least two new residence halls to meet the demand for the following year." This indicates that demand is outstripping supply of residential spots. But does management describe responding to this scarcity from a position of choice? They are building more, but they are also at capacity. They don't mention raising prices or being selective. They are expanding to meet demand. They say "GCU’s goal is now to have 40,000 students on its traditional campus in Phoenix." So they are planning to grow. They are not letting the shortage improve terms; they are building more. However, they are at capacity, meaning that some students may not get in? But they don't mention turning away students or being selective. They are building more to accommodate. So it's not clear that they are letting the tightening work in their favor. They are just expanding. For Orbis: They talk about opening new sites, but they don't mention scarcity. They mention enrollment growth, but not that it's hard to get in.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.