Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The transcript is about M&T Bank's Q2 2022 earnings call. The company sells banking services, loans, deposits, etc. We need to see if there is any mention of scarcity of their own product/service, and management responding with selectivity, pricing power, etc. Looking through the transcript: They discuss loan growth, deposit trends, interest rates, etc. They mention that they are retaining most mortgage originations for investment, and they expect gain on sale to be minimal. They talk about managing higher cost deposits, moving customers to off-balance sheet alternatives. They mention that they are being selective about which deposits to keep. For example: "We continue to actively manage higher cost deposits and in many cases, retaining the customer and are able to move their balances to an off-balance sheet alternative that provides the interest rate they desire." That suggests they are selective about deposits. But is that about their own product becoming harder to obtain? They are not selling deposits; they are buying deposits. The question is about what they sell: loans, banking services. Are loans becoming harder to obtain? They mention loan growth expectations, but no indication of scarcity. They talk about deploying excess cash into securities, but that's not about scarcity. They mention that they are retaining almost all originations for investment, so they are not selling mortgages. That might reduce supply of mortgages for sale, but that's not about buyers competing for their output. They also mention that they are being selective about which business to take, but that's more about managing costs. The key is: does management convey that buyers (customers) are finding it harder to obtain the company's products/services? For a bank, that could be loans. Are they tightening lending standards? They don't mention that. They talk about credit quality being stable. They mention that they are reducing construction exposure, but that's a strategic choice. They don't say that demand for loans is outstripping supply. They actually mention that loan growth may come in at lower end of range due to paydowns and lower activity. So it seems like demand is not outstripping supply.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.