Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The company is a specialty lending BDC, so its "product" is capital/loans. The question: is there a scarcity of capital that they provide? Actually, they are lenders, so they provide loans. The "buyers" are borrowers. Is there a tightening of availability of loans? The transcript discusses competitive environment, spread compression, high leverage, etc. They talk about being selective, but not that loans are scarce. They mention that they are disciplined and selective, but not that borrowers are finding it harder to get loans from them. They talk about their own portfolio construction, but not about scarcity of their product. They mention that they are not raising equity, but that's about their own capital. They talk about market volatility creating opportunities, but not about a shortage of their lending capacity. They also mention that they have a lot of capital to deploy? Actually, they have leverage below target, so they have capacity. They are not rationing loans. They are being selective, but that's always the case. The question asks if management conveys that availability of their product is tightening relative to demand. They don't say that. They say they are disciplined and selective, but not that borrowers are competing for limited funds. They also mention that they are growing their portfolio. So answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.