Selling into a wave of new capacity being built by others: management describes its customers' own build-out spending as
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management explains current momentum and near-term trajectory chiefly by pointing to a wave of new building/equipping/capacity-creation by other parties, with real current business, and that the wave is early and big. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from management: - Steve Kelley: "We continue to experience robust design win activity across our product portfolio, as customers shift their focus from solving supply chain issues to designing innovative new products." This is about customers designing new products, not necessarily building capacity. But design wins could lead to future business. - "Over the past 12 months, we've launched multiple new differentiated platforms, which will enable our customers to win in their end markets." That's about their own new products. - "High interest in our new products and technologies is driving a deeper level of customer engagement, particularly in the semiconductor, industrial and medical markets." Again, their own products. - "As a result, we expect to generate a record number of design wins in 2023, which we believe sets us up well for profitable revenue growth in the coming years." Design wins are future business, not necessarily current build-out. - "We are also working on a number of fronts to improve our operational efficiency." That's internal. - "Moving to the supply chain. The good news is that the availability of most critical components has improved." That's about supply. - In semiconductor: "We generated record revenue in the high voltage part of our semiconductor business, largely due to continued strong demand from ion implant OEMs." That's demand from OEMs, but is that about building capacity? Ion implant is used in semiconductor manufacturing. But the demand is for ion implant equipment, which is used in fabs. However, the transcript doesn't explicitly say that customers are building new fabs or expanding capacity. It says "strong demand from ion implant OEMs" - that could be for their equipment, but it's not clear that it's about new capacity creation. It might be just ongoing demand. - "Our service business also recorded near record revenue helped by high demand for value added services." That's service, not new build. - "At SEMICON West last month, we officially launched two new Plasma power technologies...
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| RDCM | RADCOM Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-01-31 | A |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| ADSE | ADS-TEC Energy PLC | Q4 2021 | 2022-04-28 | D |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| IPGP | IPG Photonics Corporation | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-02 | C |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-11 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
TEL · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management explains the company's current momentum and near-term trajectory by pointing to a wave of new building or capacity-creation by others, that's early or intensif...YES The transcript shows management framing the company's momentum chiefly through a wave of external capacity creation: EV production growth (40% in 2023, expected continued growth next year, with Asia as driver), renewable energy adoption (wind/solar), and AI/cloud applications. They describe others (OEMs, installers 3rd parties) building new productive capability—new EV platforms, renewable sites, AI clusters—while TE already supplies into it via content outperformance and early ramps. Current business is real (sequential order growth, $1.3B pipeline, $100M+ incremental AI revenue). The wave is early/intensifying 2024–2025 (3–4 year programs, more phases ahead, destocking normalizing). This is presented as the primary secular driver offsetting cyclical weakness, not just consumption or pricing. Other elements (destocking, FX) are secondary. Thus all three conditions are met in substance.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management explains the company's current momentum and near-term trajectory by pointing to a wave of new building or capacity-creation by other parties, like customers, t...YES The transcript shows management attributing HPMC momentum chiefly to the "ongoing production ramp of next-generation jet engines at all of our major engine OEM customers" and the "industry is currently in the early phases of a multi-year production expansion." This describes OEMs creating new productive capacity through rate ramps and build growth for next generation engines. Management confirms current business from this wave with "next-generation product sales reached 48% of total jet engine product sales" and "65% increase in next-generation product sales," plus "seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin expansion.
RDCM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management explains the company's current momentum and near-term trajectory by pointing to a wave of new building, equipping, or capacity-creation by other parties (custo...YES The transcript shows management framing 2024 momentum around operators’ ongoing 5G standalone network build-outs (new productive capacity being created by customers), with RADCOM already supplying assurance software to those projects and the wave described as still early and accelerating. All three conditions are met in Eyal Harari’s prepared remarks and Q&A.