Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Gayn Erickson discusses business. He mentions ABTS business: "we’re currently working on some projects that could increase this business considerably, so likely not before our next fiscal year that begins on June 1. We expect to have more information to share on the potential of these projects in the next quarter or two" - that's future, not current. FOX-1P: shipped multiple systems to lead customer. No mention of size escalation. FOX-XP: initial customer, they need systems for production burn-in. "Most recently, we’ve received information from this customer that implies a slightly later ramp than we were originally understood with capacity shipments needed in the upcoming summer of 2017 rather than at the end of calendar first quarter." That's about timing, not size. He talks about opportunities, but no explicit statement that deals are getting bigger. He mentions "we continue to see significant opportunities" but no comparison. He mentions "we are building up some amount of inventory. We’re actually building several systems in anticipation of the need for shorter lead times." That's about volume. No mention of average deal size increasing, or customers starting at larger scope, or follow-on commitments at multiples. The only possible is "we’re currently working on some projects that could increase this business considerably" - but that's future, not already real. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.