Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs. We need to see if management conveys that the unit size of its repeatable business is escalating. Looking at the transcript, there are mentions of clinical trials, drug launches, etc. But the key is whether management says that the size of what they are landing now is bigger than before for the same offering. For example, they talk about TIBSOVO launch, but that's revenue, not necessarily unit size. They talk about clinical trials, but not about deals getting bigger. They mention that they are expanding indications, but that's not about the same kind of business getting bigger. They mention that they are enrolling patients in trials, but not that each trial is bigger. They mention that they are opening new sites, but that's more volume. They mention that they are submitting sNDA for newly diagnosed AML, but that's a regulatory expansion, not a deal size. They mention that they are gaining worldwide rights to AG-881, but that's a one-time event. They mention that they are on track to complete enrollment in 2020, but that's not about size. They mention that they are starting a Phase 2 study in thalassemia, but that's a new program. They mention that they have submitted IND for AG-636, but that's a new program. None of these indicate that the same kind of business (e.g., selling a drug, signing a contract) is coming in at progressively larger sizes. The question is about "successive engagements of the same kind" - like each new order is bigger than the last. There is no such description. Management talks about strong demand, more customers, higher revenue, but not about the individual size of what they land growing. For example, they say "we estimate over 100 unique prescribers have written a prescription" - that's more customers, not bigger orders. They say "we are pleased with the uptake" - that's volume. They say "we expect the treatment duration to increase" - that's about duration, but that's not about the size of a deal, it's about how long patients stay on therapy. But that's not about the company's business engagements like contracts or orders.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.