Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early (i.e., escalation is recent and further instances expected). In the transcript, management discusses investment activity. They mention originating and funding over $1.4 billion of investments in 2016. They talk about the portfolio growing. They mention that they originated 10 floating rate first mortgage loan transactions at an average size of approximately $85 million. They also mention that they have been active in larger floating rate first mortgage loan market. But is there a comparison to past average sizes? They say "As ARI has grown its capital base, the Company has become more active in the larger floating rate first mortgage loan market." That suggests they are doing larger loans now than before, but is it a direct comparison? They say "During 2016, we originated 10 floating rate first mortgage loan transactions at an average size of approximately $85 million." They don't explicitly say that previously the average size was smaller. However, they do say "As ARI has grown its capital base, the Company has become more active in the larger floating rate first mortgage loan market." That implies that they are now doing larger loans than they used to. But is that a clear statement of escalation? They also mention that they have been able to generate IRRs on these investments. They also mention that they have been able to find attractive investments. But the question is specifically about successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The transcript does not explicitly state that the average size of new loans has increased compared to the past. They mention that they originated 10 loans at an average size of $85 million, but they don't say what the average was before. They do say that they have become more active in the larger market, which suggests a shift to larger deals, but it's not a direct comparison of unit size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.