Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for any statement in the transcript that indicates an escalation in unit size of repeatable business. The transcript covers loan growth, mortgage banking, etc. Management discusses loan growth in various categories, but does that indicate larger individual deals? They mention strong growth in every loan category, but that could be volume. They mention commercial loans grew 5.6% from previous quarter, consumer loans up 3.6%, total loans up 13.1% year-over-year. But that's overall growth, not necessarily larger individual deals. They also discuss mortgage banking income increased, but that's due to volume and market share. They mention "we have picked up market share" and "mix of refi and purchase is about 50/50". No mention of average loan size increasing. They discuss construction lending: "we're probably near our high point in construction outstandings. So commitments have flattened out, as you might anticipate. Fundings are growing as product is being built and we're probably a quarter or two away from the turn there." That suggests construction loans are being drawn down, but not that new commitments are larger. They discuss solar energy tax credit investments, but that's not about deals. They discuss expenses and initiatives, but nothing about deal size. The question is specifically about successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. There is no mention of that. Management does not say that new loans are larger than previous ones, or that new projects are bigger, etc. They talk about growth in volume, but not unit size escalation. Thus, the answer is NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.