Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Mike McMasters discusses projects: Eastern Shore Natural Gas expansion, Florida projects. He mentions "a new project, a 14-mile pipeline to serve our customers in New Smyrna, Florida" and "Northwest Florida Pipeline Expansion is underway." He talks about the Eastern Shore 2017 expansion: "approximately $100 million project. Now it's gone to $115 million." That's an increase in cost, not necessarily size. But he says "a lot of that has to do with the compression of the project, the construction over the winter but, in addition to that, increased costs over time since we initially estimated our – in our estimates." So cost increase, not necessarily larger scope. He also mentions "Project description: 23 miles of pipeline looping Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland; 17 miles of new mainline extensions; upgrades to our TETCO interconnect... 3,750 horsepower of new compression and two new compressor control stations. Overall capacity increase, 61,162 dekatherms per day." That's a specific project. Does he compare to past projects? He says "As you may recall, a couple of years ago, with the polar vortex... we did this reliability project. We invested $38 million to improve the reliability." That's a past project. Then he talks about the 2017 expansion. But is there a statement that the current projects are individually larger than past ones? He doesn't explicitly say "these projects are bigger than what we used to do." He mentions the Eastern Shore expansion is $115 million, but that's a cost. He also mentions Florida projects: $35.9 million for Northwest, and New Smyrna 14 miles. He says "these are both very good projects for us." No comparison to past size. Beth Cooper talks about expected future margins: "these larger projects are adding about $27 million in total." She says "if you look at those three key expansions that he talked about, those, along next year, are going to add an estimated $14.8 million in margins." That's about margins, not necessarily size of individual deals. She also says "we're also seeking to identify those opportunities that are going to further add margin in 2018 and 2019 and then beyond." That's future.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.