Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the company's successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size? That is, does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. Management talks about revenue growth, order backlog, purchase orders, etc. But does it specifically say that the size of individual orders or deals is increasing? For example, that new customers are starting at a higher level, or that follow-on orders are larger, or that the average order size has stepped up. Let's scan the transcript. Ron Dutt says: "In the second quarter, we received $19.8 million in customer purchase orders from existing Fortune 500 and new customers an increase of 51% from the first quarter of fiscal 2022 and over 200% from the same period a year ago." That's about total orders, not necessarily individual size. He also says "customer order backlog increased to a record $31.4 million as of December 31, 2021." That's total backlog. He mentions "multiple orders for our large Class 1 X-series battery packs from a global consumer appliance manufacturer and a new order for GSE or airport ground support equipment battery pack from an additional large domestic airline." Also "multiple orders for our C-Series battery pack, designed for our solar powered EV charging station partner, Beam Global." But these are just multiple orders, not necessarily larger individual orders. He talks about "pre-purchasing of inventory" due to supply chain, and "price increase in Q2 2021 on new orders" but that's about pricing, not size. He mentions "we are pleased with being chosen by Fortune 500 companies as their supplier of choice" and lists customers like Delta, PepsiCo, Caterpillar. But no mention of the size of individual deals escalating. He talks about "SkyBMS Telematics product" and "customer interest has been very positive." But no mention of larger engagements.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.