Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Todd Becker discusses various initiatives. For 60% protein: "We have sold some 60% protein commercially in smaller beginning quantities and are in the process of finishing some commercial feed trials with some larger potential customers and have begun price negotiations for a larger share of the recipes and rations that they have." This suggests moving from smaller to larger quantities, but is it a comparison against own past? It says "smaller beginning quantities" then "larger potential customers" and "larger share" - that indicates escalation. Also "we are in enough negotiations that could eventually take all of our product" - but that's future. However, the statement "We have sold some 60% protein commercially in smaller beginning quantities" implies past small, now moving to larger. But is it already real? It says "in the process of finishing trials" and "begun price negotiations" - so not yet signed larger deals. That might be more hope/ambition. For clean sugar: "we will be ready to begin delivering product in the beginning of the second quarter" - not yet. "we continue to have strong interest" - not specific. For carbon: "Our three Nebraska plants... should come online in mid-2025" - future. For Tharaldson JV: "beginning commissioning as we speak" - that's a new project, but not necessarily larger than previous. Look for explicit comparison: "we have increased 50% protein production and sales in Q4" - that's volume, not unit size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? In the transcript, for 60% protein, they say "smaller beginning quantities" and now "larger potential customers" and "larger share" - but that's still in negotiation. Also "we are in enough negotiations that could eventually take all of our product" - that's future potential. For clean sugar, they mention "late-stage negotiations with several current counterparties for a significant portion of our production over the next several years" - that's larger scope? But not yet signed.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.