Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early (i.e., not yet fully reflected in results). In the transcript, management discusses loan production, new commitments, etc. They mention that new loan commitments in Q4 were $329 million, up from $271 million last quarter and $164 million in Q4 2020. That is an increase in volume, but is it about size of individual deals? They also mention that the average interest rate on new commercial loans was 3.71% up from 3.51% last quarter, but that's pricing, not size. They talk about construction loan commitments increasing, unfunded commitments, etc. But do they say that the individual deals are larger? They mention that a higher percentage of new loan volume was unfunded construction commitments, which might indicate larger projects, but they don't explicitly compare deal sizes. They also mention that they are seeing an increase in new loan requests since July 2021, and that the pipeline is strong. But they don't say that the average size of new loans has increased versus the past. They talk about prepays and payoffs, but that's about existing loans. They mention that they are getting their fair share of new deals, and that a good portion of new transactions are coming from proactive outbound calling, customer referrals, and PPP recipients. But no mention of deal size escalation. They also discuss technology strategy, but that's not about deal size. They mention M&A potential, but that's not about the size of their own business engagements. So, is there any statement that the individual size of what they land has grown? They say that new loan commitments in Q4 were $329 million, up from $271 million in Q3 and $164 million in Q4 2020. That is an increase in total volume, but not necessarily in average deal size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.