Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, already real and recurring, early stage. In the transcript, management discusses international expansion: seven Super-Spec FlexRigs for Middle East, plus one in Bahrain. They mention these are part of international growth strategy. They also mention that these rigs will be sourced from idle U.S. rigs. They talk about the investment per rig. They say "these nine rigs in total, when operating for a full fiscal year together, will contribute more direct margin than the international segment did for fiscal 2023." That is a comparison of total contribution, not necessarily unit size escalation. They don't explicitly say that each new contract is larger than previous ones. They mention they have been awarded seven rigs, and previously one in Saudi, one in Bahrain. But is there a sense that the size of each award is growing? They say "we've been successful in contracting an additional rig in Bahrain" - that's one rig. The seven rig award is larger than previous single rig awards. But is that a pattern? They also mention "we will continue to look for opportunities to invest in projects with attractive returns" - that's future. They don't say that the deals are getting bigger over time. They just report a large award. They don't compare to past awards in terms of size per contract. They say "these nine rigs" - that includes the seven plus the one in Bahrain plus the one in Saudi? Actually they mention the Saudi rig awarded in August of 23, and the Bahrain rig, and the seven. So total nine rigs. But they don't say that the seven-rig award is larger than previous awards in a way that indicates a trend. They just say it's a positive outcome. They don't frame it as an upward drift. They also mention that they expect to incur $4 million operating expense in Q2 for rig prep, and that they will provide more details later. No explicit statement about deal size escalation. Also, in North America, they talk about rig count and margins, but not about deal size increasing. They mention performance contracts, but not that the size of each contract is growing. Thus, the answer is NO. The management does not convey that successive engagements are coming in at progressively larger size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.