Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Scan transcript for statements about deal size, order size, contracts, etc. Anil: "we are not seeing major projects with service providers being outright canceled nor do we see competitors making any notable progress. However, it is becoming harder to forecast the timing and magnitude of large orders" - that's about uncertainty, not size escalation. Michael: "we recently closed a multiyear, eight-figure enterprise-wide site license for our InfiniStreamNG software with one of our longstanding Asia-Pacific customers. This was the consummation of a prospective deal that we highlighted for investors at the end of fiscal year 2016." That's a large deal but is it part of an upward drift? Not necessarily. Also "we secured a major win in excess of $6 million with a branch of the U.S. military" - that's a single win. No comparison to past size. Jean: "we had one customer that represented greater than 10% of total second quarter revenue." That's just concentration. No mention of average deal size increasing, or new customers starting at higher levels, or follow-on commitments at multiples. The only large deals are mentioned as individual wins, not as part of a trend. Also there is mention of "pressure on our second-half service revenue as we work through a number of maintenance and support contract renewals" - that suggests contracts may be shrinking or renegotiated smaller. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.