Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs. We need to see if management conveys that the unit size of its repeatable business is escalating. Looking at the transcript, management discusses the COVID vaccine market, APAs (advance purchase agreements), and the combination vaccine. They talk about revenue guidance, cost reductions, and the launch. They mention that the U.S. market is slow, but they have APAs. They also mention that they expect to deliver all APA doses for the '23-'24 season. They talk about the combination vaccine as a future opportunity. Is there any statement about deals or orders being larger than before? They mention that they have $750 million in APA contract value post the 2023-24 season deliveries. But that's not necessarily about unit size escalation. They also mention that they are focusing on the combination vaccine, which could be a larger opportunity, but that's a future product, not the same offering. The question is about the same kind of business. For example, are they signing larger APAs now than before? They don't seem to say that. They talk about the current season's APAs and expect to deliver all doses. They also mention that they have $750 million in APA contract value for '24 and '25, but that's not necessarily larger than previous ones. They also talk about the U.S. market and their market share. They mention that they are seeing low-single digit market share, but in one retailer up to 10%. That's about market share, not deal size. They also discuss cost reductions and restructuring. That's not about deal size. The only possible thing is the combination vaccine program, but that's a new product, not the same offering as the standalone COVID vaccine. And they are planning to initiate Phase 3 in 2024, but that's not about deals. Management does not convey that successive engagements are coming in at progressively larger size. They are not saying that new orders are bigger than before. They are not comparing deal sizes. They are not saying that customers are starting at a larger scale. Thus, the answer is NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.