Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs. In the transcript, management discusses FUROSCIX launch, payer agreements, IDN agreements, etc. They mention reaching an agreement with one of the largest closed integrated delivery networks providing unrestricted access to over 8 million lives. Also, as of November 1, FUROSCIX added on Formulary as preferred brand with one of the largest government retiree payer formularies, increasing lives by 1.1 million. They also mention national Medicaid coverage effective July 1st. They talk about adding territories. But the question is about the size of engagements escalating. Are they saying that each new payer deal is bigger than the last? They mention "one of the largest closed integrated delivery networks" and "one of the largest government retiree payer formularies" - these are large, but is there a comparison to their own past? They say "moves us towards our previously stated goal of having 75% or more heart failure patients nationally with fixed co-pays of $100 or less." They also say "We are progressing with many other health plans, and we hope to have several more announcements like these in the months to come." That suggests more deals, but not necessarily that each is larger. They don't explicitly say that the size of each deal is increasing. They mention that the IDN agreement is for 8 million lives, but they don't compare to previous agreements. They also mention that they added 12 territories, but that's about sales force, not deal size. The question is about the unit size of repeatable business escalating. The business here is selling FUROSCIX, and the deals are payer contracts, IDN agreements, etc. Management does not convey that each new contract is bigger than the last. They just report new agreements. They also mention that the IDN direct sales are now captured, but that's a channel, not necessarily larger deals. They say "we anticipate that this could positively impact FUROSCIX co-pays as early as the fourth quarter." That's about access, not size. They also mention that they are adding territories, but that's about coverage. No explicit comparison of deal sizes. So answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.