Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the company's successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size? That is, does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for management's own words. The transcript includes statements from Rick Cohen, Michael Loparco, and Tom Ernst. Key points: They have an $11.3 billion backlog. They have 13 systems in deployment. They have an expanded commercial agreement with Walmart to implement in all 42 of Walmart's US regional distribution centers. That is a large deal. But is that presented as part of an upward drift in deal size? Or is it an exceptional event? The question says: "the largest single piece of business in the company's history was just signed and management presents it as part of an upward drift in deal size rather than an isolated event." So we need to see if management frames the Walmart deal as part of a trend of increasing deal sizes. Looking at the transcript: Rick Cohen says: "The entire team helped us achieve success with Walmart and today we have an expanded commercial agreement to implement Symbotic's robotics and software automation platform in all 42 of Walmart's US regional distribution centers over the coming years. The critical deal helps Symbotic to accelerate our becoming public." That seems like a big deal, but is it presented as part of an upward drift? He doesn't compare it to previous deals in terms of size. He just says it's an expanded agreement. Michael Loparco says: "we are adding world-class capabilities for the team and creating an ecosystem of partnerships to help us build our bots faster and more reliably, to install sales, lifts and structures more efficiently, and ultimately ramp fully functioning systems at sites faster and more predictably." That's about scaling, not about deal size. Tom Ernst says: "Our third quarter revenue grew 82% over the prior quarter.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.