Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons, real and recurring, early stage. In the transcript, Mike Popielec discusses various orders. For Viper: initial order over 1,000 units completed, then follow-on order for $2.2 million received in early Q4. That is a follow-on from same customer, but is it larger? The initial order was over 1,000 units, value not stated but likely larger than $2.2 million? Actually initial order was $8.2 million? Wait, the transcript says "the vehicle installed Power Enhanced Riflemen Appliqué or Viper large program contract announced last year." Later: "the final deliveries of the initial order for over 1,000 units were completed in Q3... a follow-on order for $2.2 million was received in early Q4." So the follow-on is smaller than the initial order (which was over 1,000 units, likely worth more than $2.2 million). So that's not larger. Other mentions: "we closed transactions with several medical customers, ranging in size from $300,000 to $4.8 million" - that's a range, not necessarily escalation. The $4.8 million is for an ongoing blanket order, not necessarily larger than previous. No explicit statement that deals are getting bigger. Management talks about diversification, new products, but not about unit size escalation. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.