Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early (i.e., the escalation is recent and further instances are expected). In the transcript, management discusses various businesses. Let's scan for any mention of deal size increasing over time. Willy Walker mentions: "68% of our refinancings in Q2 being new loans to Walker & Dunlop and 25% of our total transaction volume being done with new clients to the firm." That's about new clients, not size. He mentions a $1.9 billion portfolio loan with Fannie Mae, but he says it's a floating rate loan with relatively small origination fee and insignificant MSR. He says it's one of the largest transactions in company history, but he doesn't frame it as part of an upward drift in deal size; he says it's a wonderful execution but not typical. He talks about growth in debt brokerage and property sales volumes, but that's volume, not necessarily size per deal. He mentions small loan originations up 171% year-over-year, but that's volume. He mentions Alliant, Zelman, GeoPhy acquisitions adding revenue. Greg Florkowski discusses segment results. He mentions that debt brokerage volumes grew 47% to $9.3 billion, property sales grew 136% to $7.9 billion. But again, that's total volume, not average deal size. He mentions that HUD volumes declined due to streamlined refis and construction delays. No mention of deal size increasing. He mentions that they expect agency lending volumes to pick up in second half, but that's volume. He mentions escrow balances and interest income. He mentions that they slowed hiring. He mentions that they are adjusting guidance. He mentions that they repurchased shares. He mentions that they expect double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA. He mentions that they are confident in achieving Drive to '25 goals. He mentions that they have a strong liquidity position.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.