Sizing the constraint out loud: management quantifies how much business its own limits are costing right now
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management puts a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now. That is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is currently NOT capturing because of an internal limit, rather than lack of demand? We need to look for management's own words that size a shortfall due to internal capacity constraints, with real present demand, and material relative to the company. In the transcript, there are mentions of capacity constraints, but are they sized? Let's examine. Keith Creel talks about capacity as currency, but doesn't give a number. John Brooks mentions crude by rail: "we did 20,000 carloads in Q2, so roughly about 60 trains a month run rate. As I look into Q3, I think we've got an opportunity to add to that." That's about growth, not a shortfall. There is discussion about labor disruptions causing revenue impact of about 250 basis points. That's a quantified impact, but that's due to labor negotiations, not an internal capacity limit in the sense of demand exceeding supply. It's a temporary disruption, not a gap due to capacity. There is mention of "capacity constrained" but no specific number. Keith says: "we've got capacity. So, as much as I appreciate crude and certainly we want to help solve that problem as much as we can, the most exciting part is the opportunity to develop perspective relationships..." No sizing. John Brooks: "I think there is a good opportunity for us to expand this here as we go into Q3 and Q4." No specific number of unserved demand. Nadeem: "We are in a very fortunate position to have a significant pipeline of high return projects to invest in." Not a shortfall. There is mention of locomotive constraints: "I would be limited by that more so than anything else. I'll be able to hire employees that got capacity on the railway. The key is the locomotive piece." But no specific number of how much more they could move if they had locomotives. The question asks: does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? That is, a specific quantified statement about business currently not captured because of an internal limit. I see no such specific sizing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
WHF · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business not captured due to i...
AOSL · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business they're currently not...
ESS · Q2 2018 → NOWe need to determine if management on this call sizes a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit, with specific quantification. The question asks: "does management PUT A SIZE ON THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT THE COMPANY IS DOING AND WHAT IT COULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW — that is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company, rather than because of a lack of demand?" We need to look for any instance where management quantifies a shortfall due to internal capacity, such as occupancy, supply, or ability to serve demand. The transcript discusses strong demand, occupancy strategy, supply constraints, etc. But we need to see if they size a gap. Key points: They talk about occupancy being lower intentionally to push rents. They mention that they are favoring market rents over occupancy, so they are deliberately leaving some occupancy on the table. But is that a "limit inside the company"? It's a strategic choice, not a capacity limit. They also discuss supply constraints in the market, but that's external. They talk about development yields compressing, but that's about new development. They mention that they have not acquired properties due to tight cap rates, but that's investment decisions. They talk about Prop 10 and rent control, but that's regulatory. They mention that they have a strong demand and job growth, but no specific sizing of unserved demand due to internal limits. They mention that they are pushing rents at slightly lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019. That is a trade-off, not a gap. They also mention that they have a preferred equity program with $398 million outstanding, but that's not about unserved demand. They talk about supply in Seattle being higher, but that's external. They mention that they have a strong balance sheet and liquidity. No where do they say "we could have rented X more units if we had them" or "we have Y demand that we can't serve because of our own capacity." They talk about occupancy being at 96.5% and they are intentionally lowering it to push rents. That is not a capacity limit; it's a pricing strategy. They also mention that they have a development pipeline, but that's future. Thus, no specific sizing of an internal limit causing unserved demand.