Sizing the constraint out loud: management quantifies how much business its own limits are costing right now
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need answer YES or NO. Need determine if management sizes gap between what company doing and could be doing right now due internal limit, not demand. Transcript: They discuss disappointing quarter, challenges. SelectRx: "To date, we have completed over 40,000 gross customer enrollments, and we are beginning to hit our stride in terms of shipments and recently at list 10,000 active members receiving prescriptions." Later: "as of January 31, we've already enrolled over 40,000 new members into our SelectRx offering. That demand was generated almost entirely from enrollments of new and existing SelectQuote Medicare Advantage customers have very low incremental acquisition costs... There's typically a several-month lag between initial enrollment and then [indiscernible] receiving their first shipment and then the falloff will occur during that time frame. However, the left-hand chart clearly shows there is significant demand for the service. As we have scaled the business over the last 6 months, we have learned the nuances of this business and made many operational improvements to lower falloff and speed up the onboarding process. You can see those efforts starting to take shape on the right-hand chart, which shows the growth in our paying membership. As of January 31, we now have over 10,000 active paying customers on the SelectRx platform. Importantly, we exited the month of January with over 75% more active paying members than we had at the end of November, demonstrating that our process enhancements are really starting to pay off. We remain excited about the positive and predictable cash flow impact this business can have on our overall results and we remain confident with our forecast to exit this fiscal year with around 25,000 active paying SelectRx members, over 10x what we started the year with." Does this size gap between enrollments (40k) and active paying (10k) due internal limit? They mention lag between enrollment and first shipment and falloff. They made operational improvements to lower falloff and speed onboarding. The gap between 40k enrolled and 10k active is not necessarily unserved demand due internal capacity; it's onboarding lag and falloff. They don't say they are turning away demand. They say demand generated almost entirely from enrollments with low acquisition costs.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
WHF · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business not captured due to i...
AOSL · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business they're currently not...
ESS · Q2 2018 → NOWe need to determine if management on this call sizes a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit, with specific quantification. The question asks: "does management PUT A SIZE ON THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT THE COMPANY IS DOING AND WHAT IT COULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW — that is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company, rather than because of a lack of demand?" We need to look for any instance where management quantifies a shortfall due to internal capacity, such as occupancy, supply, or ability to serve demand. The transcript discusses strong demand, occupancy strategy, supply constraints, etc. But we need to see if they size a gap. Key points: They talk about occupancy being lower intentionally to push rents. They mention that they are favoring market rents over occupancy, so they are deliberately leaving some occupancy on the table. But is that a "limit inside the company"? It's a strategic choice, not a capacity limit. They also discuss supply constraints in the market, but that's external. They talk about development yields compressing, but that's about new development. They mention that they have not acquired properties due to tight cap rates, but that's investment decisions. They talk about Prop 10 and rent control, but that's regulatory. They mention that they have a strong demand and job growth, but no specific sizing of unserved demand due to internal limits. They mention that they are pushing rents at slightly lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019. That is a trade-off, not a gap. They also mention that they have a preferred equity program with $398 million outstanding, but that's not about unserved demand. They talk about supply in Seattle being higher, but that's external. They mention that they have a strong balance sheet and liquidity. No where do they say "we could have rented X more units if we had them" or "we have Y demand that we can't serve because of our own capacity." They talk about occupancy being at 96.5% and they are intentionally lowering it to push rents. That is not a capacity limit; it's a pricing strategy. They also mention that they have a development pipeline, but that's future. Thus, no specific sizing of an internal limit causing unserved demand.