Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes counterparties having already committed to take output/product/capacity/service that the company is not yet able to deliver. The key is whether there are actual commitments (signed, ordered, reserved, etc.) for something not yet built, and the company is racing to build it. From the transcript: They have agreements with MNOs representing 1.8 billion subscribers. But are those commitments to take service? They are agreements or memorandums of understanding. The transcript says "we have added three new operators included a memorandum of understanding with Smartfren Telecom" and "we had reached more than 1.8 billion subscribers that we can access through the agreements or memorandums of understanding that we have with operators around the globe." So these are agreements/MOUs, not necessarily firm commitments to purchase capacity. They are more like partnerships to enable access. The question asks if counterparties have committed to take output, product, capacity, or service. The MNOs are not necessarily buying capacity; they are partnering to provide service. The company is building satellites to provide service, but the MNOs are not committing to purchase a defined share. They are more like distribution partners. The transcript does not indicate that MNOs have signed up to take a specific amount of capacity or prepaid. It says "agreements or memorandums of understanding" - MOUs are not firm commitments. Also, the company is building satellites, but the MNOs are not committing to buy the service; they are cooperating to test and eventually offer service. The question is about commitments to take output before the means of production exists. Here, the company is building satellites, but the MNOs are not necessarily committing to purchase capacity. They are partnering to provide service to their subscribers. The company will generate revenue from the service, but the MNOs are not committing to pay for it in advance. The transcript does not mention any prepayments, orders, or reservations for satellite capacity. The only mention of prepayments is for launch services. So there is no evidence of counterparties having committed to take output. Also, the company is building satellites, but the MNOs are not committing to take capacity. The agreements are more about cooperation.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.