Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NO我们根据提供的电话会议记录,寻找管理层是否描述了“对手方已经承诺接受公司尚未能交付的产出、产品、产能或服务”的情况。即,买家、合作伙伴或机构已经签约、预订、订购或声称了公司尚未建成、尚未开始大规模生产或尚不具备供应能力的东西的一部分,使得公司未来产出的部分在产生手段存在之前就已经被预定。 在记录中,管理层提到了许多项目,如FPSO、炼油厂、化肥厂等,但我们需要寻找具体的承诺。例如,关于天然气合同,Tolmasquim提到“我们签署了34份新合同,涉及15家分销商,估计收入1670亿雷亚尔”,这些是现有合同,但天然气供应能力是否已经存在?可能已经存在。关于化肥厂,Unigel合同是服务合同,但那是现有资产。关于可再生能源,只是签署了谅解备忘录(MoU),不是承诺。关于柴油R,是自愿消费,有合作伙伴,但可能不是大规模承诺。 关键点:是否有对手方已经承诺购买尚未建成的产能?例如,如果公司正在建设新炼油厂或新平台,但尚未有买家承诺购买其产出。记录中,Joelson提到“我们开始运营主要生产项目”,但那是已经投产的。关于未来生产,没有提到预售或承购协议。 因此,没有明确描述对手方已经承诺购买尚未交付的产出。所以答案应为NO。
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.