Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes counterparties having already committed to take output/product/capacity/service that the company is not yet able to deliver. The key is: commitments are real and already made, and the ability to supply does not yet fully exist, with the gap being closed now. Also, the commitments are large relative to current business. Let's scan the transcript for any mention of commitments, contracts, offtake, reservations, etc. for future output from unbuilt or not-yet-operational facilities. - The LPG Export Terminal at Freeport: completed, commissioning went smoothly, shipped first commercial cargo in mid-December, expect to be loading to near capacity this month. So it's already operational. No mention of commitments for future output. - Dakota Access ETCOP system: expected to complete in Q2. Phillips 66 has 25% interest. No mention of commitments. - Beaumont Terminal expansion: ongoing, commissioned 1.2 million barrels of contracted crude storage in Q4, 2 million barrels additional expected by mid-year. "Contracted crude storage" - that suggests counterparties have contracted for storage capacity. But is that storage capacity not yet available? They commissioned 1.2 million barrels in Q4, so that's already available. The additional 2 million barrels expected by mid-year - are those contracted? The phrase "contracted crude storage" might refer to the 1.2 million barrels that were commissioned. The additional 2 million barrels - it says "2 million barrels of additional crude and product storage is expected to be available by mid-year." It doesn't say those are contracted. So no clear commitment for future capacity. - PSXP dropdowns, etc. Not relevant. - Chemicals: CPChem advancing U.S. Gulf Coast Petrochemicals Project. Polyethylene units on track to start up mid-2017, ethane cracker Q4 2017. No mention of offtake agreements or commitments for the output. - Refining projects: Billings increasing Canadian heavy crude processing capability, Bayway and Wood River FCC modernization. No mention of commitments. - DCP restructuring: no mention of commitments. - Midstream: Sand Hills expansion, Frac Two discussions. "We're in, I would say, very serious discussions on the volumes for that frac." That's discussions, not commitments.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.