Sold out of itself: management is turning demand away today because the company cannot supply it, and the fix is already
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that the company is currently failing to serve demand it already has, with all three criteria: (1) demand already there and going unserved, (2) management treats unserved portion as material, (3) company already acting to close the gap. From the transcript, we have statements about waiting lists for Porofino and 812 Superfast. For example: "the Ferrari Portofino at the beginning of September... Deliveries of the Portofino, which already has a robust waiting list will commence in 2018." Also "The 812 Superfast just arrived in EMEA." Also "the product pipeline is full and I think that the waiting time is still well in excess of 12 months across the major pieces." Also "We’re working our way up after the finish of the 488 now. We’ve got a bit more to run." Management also mentions that they are not able to supply all demand because of limited production. They talk about "scarcity" with which they manage supply. They say they need to protect clients. They also talk about pricing in euros to be unimpacted by FX, but that's about pricing not capacity. How about the company acting to close the gap? They mention ramping up production? They talk about 2018 deliveries for Portofino, but that's just timing. They also talk about "the CapEx will be in my view probably abnormal given what we've been lately" in context of hybrid costs. But are they expanding capacity? They say they are increasing volumes gradually. They have a five-year plan. But are they describing current actions to increase supply? They mention "we need to take a very hard look at this to see what more we can get out of the system given the relative success that we've had with even this volume of 8,400 vehicles for the year." That suggests they are considering expanding. But they haven't committed? Actually they have a plan. But the question asks if they are already spending or committing to remove that limit. They talk about R&D and CapEx, but that's for new products, not necessarily increasing capacity for existing demand. However, waiting list is a clear sign of unserved demand. Management treats it as material: "robust waiting list", "well in excess of 12 months" across major pieces. That indicates significant demand.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRBR | BellRing Brands, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-21 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-19 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | C |
| FLUX | Flux Power Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-10 | D |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-01-27 | B |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-12 | A |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-07-30 | F |
OGI · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company is CURRENTLY FAILING TO SERVE DEMAND IT ALREADY HAS — real buyers being turned away, etc., because they can't supply, AND already spending or...YES The transcript shows management describing a current situation where demand is outstripping supply ("we have been really tight on our supply. Our demand was outstripping our supply"), leading to turning away or limiting sales to certain provinces ("we were really stealing from 1 pocket to the other as we're trying to balance the demand to what available capacity we had" and limiting SHRED distribution). This is material, as it affects their ability to serve existing customers fully.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company currently failing to serve demand it already has, and already spending or committing to remove that limit. YES The transcript shows clients securing space in take-or-pay arrangements because of tight capacity, indicating unserved demand from existing buyers. Management notes capacity is well utilized and they are hiring staff to accommodate higher forecasted demand, confirming they are already acting to close the gap. This situation is material given the backlog growth and emphasis on availability over price.
BRBR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company currently failing to serve demand it already has, and already spending or committing to remove that limit. NO The transcript shows ongoing capacity constraints and tight supply dynamics, with management noting they are holding back on marketing/promotions due to limited supply and that they lost customers in prior years due to capacity.