Someone else already paid for the growth: management describes an outside party bearing the cost, risk, or work that exp
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes an outside party already bearing cost/risk/work of expanding the company's business, with the payoff mostly ahead. Key points from transcript: - They have a backlog of $11.3 billion, with customers like Walmart. - They are investing in people, partnerships, and technology. They mention "third party partnerships" for building bots, installing, etc. They say "we are adding world-class capabilities for the team and creating an ecosystem of partnerships to help us build our bots faster and more reliably, to install sales, lifts and structures more efficiently, and ultimately ramp fully functioning systems at sites faster and more predictably. These third party partnerships are just beginning, but already enforcing disciplines in our operations and helping de-risk the business as we scale." - They also mention "leveraging our tier one partners for the integral system components and we're working with them on technologies designed really for speed and velocity of installation." - They talk about "build to forecast or build to capacity model" and "our entire relationship, I think with suppliers has changed recently for the better." They give long forecasts to suppliers. But are these outside parties bearing the cost/risk of expanding the company's business? The partnerships are for manufacturing and installation, but the company is still paying for those services? They are using suppliers to build components, but that's ordinary supply chain. The question is whether the outside party is spending its own money to expand the company's business, like franchisees or customers funding deployment. Here, the customers (like Walmart) are paying for the systems, but that's ordinary purchase orders. The company recognizes revenue on percentage of completion, so customers are paying as it goes. But is that "outside effort" bearing the cost? The customers are paying for the systems, but that's just normal business. The transcript mentions "we pass through steel index costs to our customers" and "we have inflation protection with our customers." So customers bear some cost increases, but that's not expansion. The key is: is there an outside party that is financing or executing the growth so that the company's reach expands faster than its own spending? The company is investing heavily in people, inventory, etc.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| VVV | Valvoline Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-02-09 | C+ |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | C |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PCRX | Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-28 | C |
| INST | Instructure's | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-12 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
| MITK | Mitek Systems, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-07 | C+ |
| SNA | Snap-on Incorporated | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-19 | B |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| MGNX | MacroGenics, Inc. | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-02 | D |
| CRIS | Curis, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-09 | C |
INST · Q4 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing the Paychex partnership as a white-label reseller arrangement where Paychex is already bearing the cost, risk, and work of expanding Instructure’s business by offering Bridge Learn to its 0.5 million customers (6 million users) using its own salesforce and customer base — a real, underway effort since the partnership was entered into and integration is already in progress. Management explicitly states Paychex owns the customers and will sell the product, while Instructure is only powering the backend, and the resulting revenue is still mostly ahead (they are optimistic about significant success by year-end). This matches 100% of the required criteria.
PLAB · Q2 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing the DNP JV as an outside party already bearing the bulk of the expansion costs and risks for the new China facility (the $160 million Xiamen site, previously announced as a company-led greenfield build last August). Peter Kirlin notes they will "utilize all cash held in Taiwan and greater reduced to risk of ramping of our new factory in China," while Sean Smith confirms they are "sharing that total investment of 160 million as we in essence have a 50-50 partnership, however we will consolidate it" and will "share equitably the startup cost.
YUM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing real, ongoing outside efforts by franchisees and partners already bearing the cost, risk, and work of expansion. Franchisees are actively spending their own capital to open units (e.g., 482 net new units YTD vs. 317 last year; KFC opening nearly 200 2Q units; Pizza Hut 6% net new unit growth; Taco Bell 9 international units), with the company 97% franchised and on track for 98%. These efforts are already in motion and contributing to current results, while management highlights acceleration and future ramp (e.g.