Someone else's clock has started running against them: the company is being paid to solve a problem that is already cost
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need answer YES or NO based on transcript. Need determine if management describes counterparties already losing something real ongoing until they get company's service, and that behavior reflects it. Need look for evidence. Transcript: company sells internet transit, corporate connections. Dave discusses value proposition, traffic growth, net neutrality slowing market. Corporate customers migrating to cloud/SaaS, need bandwidth. VPN replacing MPLS. Incumbents losing MPLS revenue? He describes "incumbents can't compete", "their high cost structure", "they got a high cost structure and they have a customer base that needs lower prices", "incumbents are stuck", "they were pummeled by voice revenue declines. Now they're getting second blow as MPLS revenue migrates to over-the-top revenue." But question: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES are already losing something real and ongoing for as long as they do not have what company provides, and that loss is visible in behavior? Counterparties could be customers, partners. Management describes incumbent providers losing market share/revenue because they don't have Cogent's model? But those are competitors, not counterparties. Also customers? Corporate customers using MPLS and migrating to VPN because MPLS costs more. But are they "losing" while they don't have Cogent? Management doesn't say customers are currently losing money each period they wait. He says businesses increasingly need bandwidth and use SaaS, and Cogent offers value. He mentions customers' demand for redundancy, etc. But no running meter on counterparty. He describes market growth slowdown due to net neutrality anxiety, but that's not counterparty losing. He describes "huge opportunity" for migration from MPLS. But does he say those customers are currently paying more and thus losing? He says incumbents have high cost structure, MPLS complex results in much higher cost per bit, but that's about competitor cost. He doesn't describe customers currently accumulating losses because they don't have Cogent. He says corporate customers are increasingly using cloud and need bandwidth, but not that they lose money each day without Cogent. Also "we have no embedded MPLS business, we've been able to capture share" - that's company gaining. No statement of counterparties acting urgently due to running meter. So answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...YES The transcript shows management describing customers' ongoing pain from labor shortages and broken supply chains that prevent them from handling demand, with customers actively clamoring for faster deployments and wanting the system as quickly as possible.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes that their counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity — for as long as they do...
GTES · Q4 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...