Someone else's clock has started running against them: the company is being paid to solve a problem that is already cost
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NOWe need to analyze the transcript for a specific phenomenon: management describes a situation where counterparties (customers, partners) are currently losing something real and ongoing because they don't have what the company provides, and this is already visible in their behavior towards the company. Also, this dynamic should be generating meaningful business for the company, with contribution still largely ahead. We need to look for descriptions of customers or partners under pressure to get something from Phillips 66, with a running meter on their side. The transcript covers multiple segments: Midstream (including LPG export terminal, NGL fractionation, pipelines, storage), Chemicals (petrochemicals), Refining (turnarounds, etc.), Marketing. Key areas: The LPG export terminal at Freeport. Greg Garland says: "We've premised eight cargoes a month. I think we did about $5.5 million in December." Actually, they said they did eight cargoes in January and have same for Feb and March. But they also say "the facility is operating as designed. We shipped our first commercial cargo in mid-December and we expect the facility to be loading to near capacity this month." But that's about their own facility. What about counterparties? For the LPG export terminal, they mention demand: "strong demand. We're seeing good pull out of Asia. Good demand out of Europe as well as some demand out of Latin America. And so heating season in the northern hemisphere has been a pull. And then petrochemical demand has been good as well." That's just demand, not necessarily a running meter on counterparties. For the fracs and NGL infrastructure: Greg says "we're in very serious discussions on the volumes for that frac. And I think we're feeling pretty good about that at this point in time." And "we see an increasing need for infrastructure around the NGL side of it." He also says "producers are beginning to ask that." Tim Taylor: "we're seeing a lot of NGL looking at our de-ramp or the ramp-up on Sand Hills out of the Permian. And so producers are beginning to ask that." That suggests producers are seeking capacity. But does that convey that producers are losing something now? They need fractionation capacity to move their NGLs to market. If they don't have it, they might face bottlenecks, lower prices, or inability to export.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...YES The transcript shows management describing customers' ongoing pain from labor shortages and broken supply chains that prevent them from handling demand, with customers actively clamoring for faster deployments and wanting the system as quickly as possible.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes that their counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity — for as long as they do...
GTES · Q4 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...