Stale terms, scheduled reset: the existing book is priced for a world that has moved on
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes a meaningful portion of existing business being carried at below-market terms that will reset on a known schedule, improving economics without needing new customers. Key points from transcript: - John Woods discusses swaps: "we've added $2.5 billion in received fixed spots in the quarter... we expect to continue adding to receive fixed swap portfolio and further moderate our asset sensitivity as the curve steepens." This is about hedging, not repricing existing book. - On securities yields: "we've had several quarters... with securities yields falling... our outlook, however, for is that to stabilize and frankly, start to turn around in the fourth quarter. I think in large degree, we will see the front book, back book start to narrow... but at the same time, we're also seeing as rates rise, premium amortization will also slow and that will provide a net positive to securities yields in 4Q." This is about securities portfolio yields, but is that "existing business"? It's about the investment portfolio, not customer contracts. The question is about existing business (leases, contracts, etc.) repricing. Securities are investments, not customer arrangements. Also, the improvement depends on rates rising, which is not yet arrived. So not that. - On deposits: "we continue to make good progress on deposit re-pricing, with total deposit costs down 2 basis points to 9 basis points. Interest-bearing deposit costs were down 2 basis points to 14 basis points during the quarter with opportunity to reduce further." This is about lowering deposit costs, not repricing existing assets upward. It's about cost reduction, not about existing business being below market. - On loans: "We foresee a gradual recovery in coming quarters as some of the issues holding back investments such as supply chain challenges and labor shortages resolve themselves." That's about new loan growth, not repricing existing book. - On PPP: "the $15 million increase in PPP from 2Q to 3Q and then because of the pull forward from 4Q, a $30 million decrease from 3Q to 4Q on PPP." That's about PPP forgiveness, not repricing. - On mortgage: "Mortgage fees rebounded in the quarter...
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-18 | B |
| FISI | Financial Institutions, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-01-26 | B |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | Q3 2022 | 2022-10-26 | C+ |
| CRK | Comstock Resources, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | Q3 2019 | 2018-11-20 | A |
| T | AT&T Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| DBX | Dropbox, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-09 | B |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| PTC | PTC Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-07-19 | C+ |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
FISI · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a meaningful portion of the existing business being carried at below-current-market terms, and that it's coming up for repricing on a visible schedul...YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this situation for the company's existing loan and securities portfolios (yields rolling off) and for a meaningful portion of its deposit book (the money-market campaign with 12-month guarantees that reset in July 2024). Jack Plants explicitly ties the expected margin expansion to these scheduled repric ings and redeployments of existing cash flows, stating that the improvement is already embedded in the company's current commitments and does not require new customers or demand. This matches the criteria for a "meaningful portion" of the existing business coming up for repricing on a visible schedule. The answer is therefore YES.
PTC · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a meaningful portion of the existing business being carried at below-current-market prices/terms that are coming up for repricing on a visible schedu...YES Management describes a meaningful portion of the existing business (large enterprise customers on volume purchase agreements / perpetual licenses with discounted maintenance) being carried at below-current off-the-shelf rates. These older terms are expiring on a visible schedule (many in Q4 2017), creating a compelling event where customers must either convert 50%+ ACV uplift to subscription or renew maintenance at 25% higher rates. This repricing is already embedded in the existing book and will improve economics without new customers or demand, as confirmed by the large pipeline of such opportunities and the fact that most large deals are already moving to subscription.
UMBF · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a meaningful portion of the existing business being carried at below-current-market terms that will reprice/reset on a known schedule, improving econ...YES The transcript shows management describing a meaningful portion of the existing loan book carried at past terms that are now below current market levels, with repricing already scheduled: 61% of loans (~$12.1 billion) are variable-rate, 60% repricing in the next quarter and 71% within 12 months, tied to short-end indices. Loan yields rose 74 bp quarter-over-quarter to 4.46% (cycle-to-date beta 37%), and the securities portfolio is rolling off at ~1.83% yield while cash flows fund higher-yielding loans.