Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement (roughly two to four periods) in a part of the business that had been unimpressive, with causes attached to the company and still in force. We have the transcript. Let's look for such a story. Key parts: Keith Waddell discusses trends. He mentions "we are encouraged that during the last 10 weeks to 12 weeks, our weekly revenues have declined less than that same rate a quarter ago, as an example, from start to finish this most recent quarter. Our weekly revenues are down 2% or 3%. Cumulatively, that same statistic last quarter was down 8% to 10%. So clearly, the rate of decline has narrowed and or improved significantly." That indicates improvement in weekly sequential trends. But is that a "run of consecutive periods"? He says "the rates of decline have narrowed over the past 10 weeks to 12 weeks." That's a period of improvement, but it's not necessarily quarterly periods. He also says "We've had three quarters of sequential declines by definition, you're going to have negative year on year growth rates because you're starting in the hole. But to the effect that you've flattened out most recently that's certainly helpful on a year on year basis but you still have the issue of the past three quarters have been down less than what they were a year ago." Actually, he says the past three quarters have been down less? That's ambiguous. Let's read carefully. From Keith: "This whole weekly sequential versus quarterly sequential versus year-over-year has many moving parts... That's why for us to understand how we're performing right now, we believe the best thing to look at is how our weekly revenues are progressing on a sequential basis. So the fact that we've had three quarters of sequential declines by definition, you're going to have negative year on year growth rates because you're starting in the hole. But to the effect that you've flattened out most recently that's certainly helpful on a year on year basis but you still have the issue of the past three quarters have been down less than what they were a year ago." That last part might be mis-transcribed.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | A |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-29 | D |
| MNKD | MannKind Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-27 | C |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| BMBL | Bumble Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | F |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | B |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-13 | B |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-02 | C |
| UFI | Unifi, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-08-07 | B |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| ORAN | Orange SA | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...