After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management reports that the most important positive developments happened so late in the period or shortly after it ended that the results contain little or none of their effect, with management itself marking the timing. We need to look for specific late-breaking positive events that management describes as occurring near the end of the quarter or after, and that management treats as the real story the numbers missed. Let's scan the transcript for such mentions. Key topics: - Investment in S&P Dow Jones Indices JV, $410 million, funded acquisition of IHS Markit Indices. That was during the quarter. Not necessarily late-breaking. - SOFR transition: record volumes, but that's during the quarter. - New product launches: Micro Copper, options on Micro WTI, etc. Not necessarily late. - Event contracts: announced plans to launch later this year (September 19). That's future, not yet happened. - Cloud migration: on track to deliver foundational services towards end of this year. Not yet. - BrokerTec/EBS migration: EBS moved to Globex in May (during Q2). That's mid-quarter. - DTCC approval for margin offsets: Terry mentions "we are hopefully at the final end game here... DTCC has finalized all of their applications to the SEC. We are doing joint webinars... we are hopeful that once the SEC approves this, they have, I believe, a 60-day window... we will achieve much higher benefits for our clients. So, that's something we're shooting for as well." That's future, not yet approved. Not a done event. What about late-breaking positive events? Let's look for phrases like "late in the quarter", "since quarter-end", "in the final weeks", etc. In the Q&A, there is discussion about volumes. But the question is about positive developments that happened so late that results contain little or none of their effect. One candidate: The investment in S&P Dow Jones Indices JV. That was during the quarter. But did it happen late? Not specified. Also, management says "we expect the near-term impact on earnings from this purchase to be relatively small." So not a big deal. Another: The SOFR options initiative. John Pietrowicz says: "In our license fee line this quarter, we have 3 -- between $3 million and $3.5 million of costs associated with the SOFR first for options initiative.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM | Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| NBTX | Nanobiotix S.A. | Q2 2023 | 2023-09-27 | D |
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-09-08 | C+ |
| YMM | Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-25 | C+ |
| VNRX | VolitionRx Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | F |
| OPK | OPKO Health, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | D |
| BFIN | BankFinancial Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-06 | A |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| BFI | BurgerFi International, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-12 | C |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...