After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management reports that the most important positive developments of the period happened so late in the reported period or shortly after it ended that the results contain little or none of their effect, with management itself marking the timing. Let's analyze the transcript. The call is for Q2 2018. Management discusses results, guidance, and various topics. Key points: - Mike Schall: "We’re pleased with our strong second quarter results, which reflect a mostly normal leasing season when compared to the early peak in market rents that we experienced in 2017." He mentions deceleration in revenue growth due to occupancy gain difference. He says "it is our expectation that revenue growth will slow modestly as we push rents at slightly lower levels of occupancy, which will mostly benefit 2019." So they are pushing rents at lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019, not the current period. - John Burkart: "This leasing season is playing out as anticipated. Our rents are following the historically normal rental rate curve, which peaks in July as opposed to last year when rental rates peaked early. The impact of the 2018 seasonal pattern is evident in our loss to lease numbers, which grew to 3.6% in July of 2018 compared to last year when loss to lease in July was 2%." He says "In order to maximize revenue over the next 12 months, our operating strategy is favoring market rents instead of favoring occupancy. Therefore, we expect that our occupancy during the third quarter of 2018 will be about 30 basis points below the prior year’s period or approximately 96.4%, which will create a significant headwind – for revenue this period." So they are intentionally sacrificing occupancy to get higher rents, which will benefit future periods. - Angela Kleiman: "In the second quarter, core FFO grew 5.7%, exceeding the midpoint of guidance by $0.09 per share." She mentions favorable variance due to timing of operating expenses, etc. She raises full year guidance. - Mike Schall on investment: "During the quarter, we closed on one disposition in San Diego at a low 4% cap rate and have one acquisition in a co-investment entity in contract for approximately $100 million." That's not necessarily late-breaking. - On regulatory matters, they discuss Prop 10, but that's not a positive development.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM | Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| NBTX | Nanobiotix S.A. | Q2 2023 | 2023-09-27 | D |
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-09-08 | C+ |
| YMM | Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-25 | C+ |
| VNRX | VolitionRx Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | F |
| OPK | OPKO Health, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | D |
| BFIN | BankFinancial Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-06 | A |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| BFI | BurgerFi International, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-12 | C |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...