Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOWe need to analyze the transcript for the specific pattern: company already chosen/designed into another's future product/program, wave not yet arrived, position large relative to company, management preparing. Key points from transcript: - Fossil Group makes watches, including smartwatches (wearables). They have licensed brands (PUMA, Michael Kors, etc.) and use Google's Wear OS (formerly Android Wear) and Qualcomm chips. - Management discusses wearables growth, new products launching in late summer (August) with health/wellness features, and mentions Google and Qualcomm stepping up investment. Specifically: "both Google and Qualcomm are significantly stepping up their investment behind the category and the support of the ecosystem. Google in particular launched – rebranded from Android Wear to Wear OS by Google... And then Qualcomm today also announced the next-generation chipset." Does this fit? The company (Fossil) is a watchmaker that uses Google's OS and Qualcomm chips. But is Fossil "designed into" Google's or Qualcomm's next product? No, it's the other way: Fossil uses their components. The pattern is about a smaller company being selected to be part of a larger company's next thing. Here, Fossil is the one making the product, and Google/Qualcomm are suppliers. So that's not it. What about licensing agreements? They signed a licensing agreement with PUMA. That means Fossil will design and distribute PUMA watches. But that's a licensing deal where Fossil is the licensee. Is that "chosen, specified, designed in" to PUMA's future product? Not exactly. PUMA is a brand, and Fossil will make watches under that brand. But that's a typical licensing arrangement, not a design win into a larger platform. Also, the wave (PUMA watches) hasn't launched yet, but it's not a large counterparty's next act in the sense of a platform. It's just a brand license. The question asks: "does management describe that the company has ALREADY BEEN CHOSEN, SPECIFIED, QUALIFIED, DESIGNED IN, OR OTHERWISE LOCKED INTO POSITION INSIDE ANOTHER ORGANIZATION'S FUTURE PRODUCT, PROGRAM, PLATFORM, BUILD-OUT, OR STANDARD OPERATING PLAN" such that when that outside party's own next wave arrives, this company's volume arrives with it automatically. And that this position is secured today while the wave has not yet shipped.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...