Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where the company (Gentex) has already been chosen/designed into another party's future product/program, and that wave hasn't shipped yet, and the position is large relative to the company. Let's analyze the transcript. The key product discussed is the Full Display Mirror (FDM). Management discusses launches on GM, Subaru, Nissan. They mention they have received program awards with five different OEMs and are in advanced talks with others. They are shipping on eight GM models, Subaru Levorg, Nissan Armada. But are these already shipping at scale? They are shipping, but the question is whether the wave is still ahead. The transcript says: "we are currently shipping on eight vehicle models for General Motors, and we continue to believe that we’ll see additional program launches for Full Display Mirror over the next several years at GM." Also, they mention "we have received program awards with five different OEMs for our Full Display Mirror and are in advanced talks with other OEMs who, we believe, will make decisions to add the Full Display Mirror into their product roadmap for future vehicles." So they have awards, but the launches are ongoing. The question is whether the position is secured and the wave is not yet arrived. They are shipping now, but the volume is still ramping. They also mention that the FDM is a starting point for camera monitoring system, etc. But the key is: is there a specific instance where they are designed into a future product that hasn't shipped yet? They talk about "initial launch customers" and "we are currently shipping" - so some are shipping. But they also say "we continue to believe that we’ll see additional program launches" - that's future. But the question asks: "has ALREADY BEEN CHOSEN, SPECIFIED, QUALIFIED, DESIGNED IN, OR OTHERWISE LOCKED INTO POSITION INSIDE ANOTHER ORGANIZATION'S FUTURE PRODUCT, PROGRAM, PLATFORM, BUILD-OUT, OR STANDARD OPERATING PLAN — such that when that outside party's own next wave of activity arrives, this company's volume arrives with it automatically — AND does management convey that this position is secured today while the wave itself has not yet shipped, launched, ramped, or begun at scale?" The transcript mentions that they have program awards with five OEMs. That means they are chosen.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...