Cash cost of the wait: management is funding a defined waiting period whose end is already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket, with three conditions: 1. The company is paying now for something not yet earning. 2. Management speaks as though the wait is the company's main current work. 3. The far side is a specific, near-dated, already-visible event. Let me examine the transcript for evidence. The most prominent candidate is the Grasberg underground development in Indonesia. Management discusses: - The Grasberg Block Cave project, which will begin block caving in late 2018, with ramp-up over 5-6 years. - They are currently spending on underground development (about $700 million per year in major projects). - The open pit is being completed next year (2018), and then all production will be from underground. - They have slowed spending by about 25% earlier this year but are continuing to spend at a reduced level to prepare the Grasberg Block Cave for startup when the open pit is completed late next year. Let me check the specific quotes: Kathleen Quirk: "We have, David – earlier this year, we have slowed some of the spending – we cut the spending in the underground by about 25% and you saw the impacts of that earlier this year. We are continuing to spend at a reduced level to prepare the Grasberg Block Cave for startup when the open pit is completed late next year." Richard Adkerson: "Our plans call for us to complete the pit next year. From that point forward, all the production would be from the underground. This will – our current project will allow us to begin block caving this resource in late 2018." So the company is spending on underground development now, and the benefit (block cave production) begins in late 2018/2019. The open pit is being completed next year (2018). The block cave ramps up over 5-6 years. Is this a "defined waiting period" with a "specific, near-dated, already-visible event"? The event is the completion of the open pit and the start of block caving in late 2018. That's within roughly a year from the call date (October 2017). However, let me consider whether this fits the criteria: 1. The company is paying now for something not yet earning: Yes, they are spending on underground development (capital expenditure) that won't produce until the block cave starts.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| LILA | Liberty Latin America Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-23 | C |
| SBS | Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-10 | C+ |
| QTRX | Quanterix Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| APPS | Digital Turbine, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-08 | D |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | F |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | C |
| IBTX | Independent Bank Group, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | A |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| DAN | Dana Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B |
SBS · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it's paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently bearing real, ongoing cash costs (salaries, consulting, transition work) for the IDP/restructuring program whose benefits (full expense reduction, shared-services center operational) are not yet realized. The far side is a specific, near-dated event: full 3.7% staff reduction and shared-services center operational by mid-2024 (July 2024 for full benefit), with the program already in motion and on schedule. Management frames this as the main current work, not a setback, and treats the costs as self-funded. This meets all three conditions.
EHTH · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently living through a defined waiting period for the AEP, paying for it out of its own pocket through heavy investments in internal agents and quality initiatives. They hired agents early, many still in training with lower productivity, and are bearing the cost of additional training and customer service expansion in Q3. This is framed as a chosen investment to improve enrollment quality and prepare for the fourth-quarter AEP, not an apology or external issue.
YUM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing a clear, self-funded transition cost tied to the refranchising effort. They explicitly call out the “timing mismatch between G&A savings and refranchising” as one of the four items weighing on Q2 core operating profit, and they quantify the full-year headwind at 6 7 percentage points. This is presented as a real, ongoing drag on current results while they complete the shift to 98 % franchised by year-end 2018 and reach the 1.7 % G&A run-rate target in 2019.