Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, and that additional business is already arriving. The key is whether they describe an already-built base (capacity, infrastructure, etc.) that can handle more volume without proportional cost, and that volume is increasing now. From the transcript: - Steve mentions staffing improvements, which means they have more staff than before, so they can handle more customers without hiring more? Actually, they say "we continued to make progress on hiring and staffing our restaurants" and "we've been able to continue to improve our team member retention rate" and "we are about 90%, 95% staffed in all our units". That suggests they have built up staffing to near full levels, so additional business can be served with existing staff. That is a form of already-built base (labor capacity). - They also mention off-premise business mixing at 26%, and they are rolling out catering program system-wide. They say "we are pleased with our team's off-premise execution, and we remain on track to complete the rollout of our catering program system-wide by the end of the year." That indicates they are building out catering capability, but it's not yet fully rolled out? Actually, they are in the process of rolling it out, so it's not fully built yet. But they have the infrastructure? They say "we remain on track to complete the rollout" meaning it's not complete yet. So that might not be an already-built base. - They mention "we believe that our philosophy of offering fresh, made from scratch food and drinks at an incredible value continues to resonate with our guests and is driving the driving force behind our growth." That's generic. - They talk about menu innovation with CKOs, but that's new items, not necessarily low incremental cost. - They mention "we expect to open two new restaurants in the fourth quarter" and "we are planning on closing one restaurant" and "we're initially expecting to open between six and nine new restaurants" for 2023. That indicates they are still investing in growth, not that they have excess capacity. They are opening new units, which means they are spending on new capacity. That suggests they are not at a point where incremental business is cheap because they are still building out.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.