Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, and that additional business is already arriving. The essence is: already built and paid for base, and incoming volume riding over it. From the transcript, we have several relevant points. Terry Duffy mentions the investment in S&P Dow Jones Indices JV, but that's not about incremental cost. John Pietrowicz discusses expenses: "Expenses were very carefully managed and on an adjusted basis were $442 million for the quarter and $359 million excluding license fees." He also says "We continue to progress with our Google partnership, we are tracking to our internal objectives and are well-underway to building the foundation for our move to the cloud." That suggests they are still building, not that the base is already built. Later, John Pietrowicz answers a question about expenses: "We didn't adjust our guidance. We're comfortable with our guidance at this point. As you guys know, the entire team at CME Group is very focused on ensuring we're spending in the most efficient manner possible. When we did give our expense guidance excluding license fees of $1.45 billion, we had planned for a heavier second half of the year, anticipating an improving business environment. And also, historically, CME's had a higher level of expense in the back half of the year related to in-person events. You haven't seen that recently, obviously, because of the synergies we were capturing from the next acquisition. So, to give you some color as to where I'm seeing those costs increase second half versus first half, a little over 40% of the increase compared to the first half of the year is related to customer-facing activities. That includes increases in travel, marketing, advertising, and in-person events. We have seen an increase in in-person customer sales activity, especially in the US and in Europe. And we're very focused on growing the business. A little over another 40% is primarily technology-related, including professional services for staff augmentation and project work, higher technology costs than the first half of the year and depreciation as we've migrated EBS to Globex, and certain systems have now been put into service and will be depreciated.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.