Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business is unusually low because the company has already built and paid for capacity, and that additional business of that kind is already arriving. Key points from the transcript: - George Maxwell discusses the upcoming drilling campaign, which will increase production. He says: "About 90% of our production costs are fixed and those production increases per barrel costs will decrease dramatically. Every new barrel we will bring online is more economic because of the low variable costs. So as we grow production, we’re also growing our margin per barrel and reducing our cost per barrel." This indicates that the next increment of production (from drilling) will have low incremental costs because most costs are fixed. However, this is about future drilling, not yet arrived. But he also says "Every new barrel we will bring online is more economic" - that's about future barrels from the drilling campaign. The drilling campaign is planned to start in December 2021, so it's not yet arrived. But he also mentions that they have already secured the rig and are preparing. However, the production increase is not yet happening; it's expected in 2022. - He also mentions the FPSO cost reduction: "The non-binding LOI which VAALCO announced in April of this year expired with any mutually agreeable contract being raised. We are in advanced talks to finalize a binding agreement with other parties that will reduce our costs and meet our schedule in line with what we previously announced." This is about reducing costs, not about incremental volume. - He mentions the workovers: "We’re now planning on completing two workovers during the third quarter... One of the workover is expected to provide potential production uplift, while the second is to install an updated ESP design on a well where the existing ESP is showing signs of potential failure." So workovers are to maintain or slightly increase production, but not a large incremental volume. - He talks about the Block P development: "We have recently completed our drilling feasibility study for the standalone development of the Venus discovery in Block P and we are moving forward now with a field development concept." That's future.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.