Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript conveys both halves: (1) next unit of business is cheap to serve because base already built/paid for, and (2) more of that business is already arriving now. Also management should convey that these two together mean results improve faster than activity. Let's examine the transcript. Scott Shaw: "Lincoln continues to invest in transformative strategies that are driving our growth." That suggests ongoing investment. But later: "we began to generate material operating leverage through the expanding deployment of 10.0. We achieved more than 200 basis points of improvement in our direct instructional cost as a percent of revenue." That indicates that as volume grows, costs as a percentage of revenue are decreasing. That is a sign of operating leverage. But is it because the base is already built? The hybrid platform is being deployed, and they are generating leverage. They say "When completed by the end of this year, Lincoln 10.0 will be used in teaching approximately 65% of our classes and we expect to generate increasing operating leverage as the year progresses and into 2025." So they are still in the middle of deploying it. They are not yet at full deployment. They are investing in new campuses, relocations, etc. They have significant capital expenditures planned. So they are in a heavy build phase. They are opening new campuses, building out new programs. So the company is currently in the middle of a heavy investment cycle. That suggests NO. But let's check if they convey that the next unit of business is cheap because they have already built capacity. They mention "our highly scalable hybrid instructional platform" and "creating instructional efficiencies and increasing productivity." They also mention "direct instructional cost as a percent of revenue" improved by 200 bps. That is a current improvement. But is it because they have already paid for the base? They are still rolling out 10.0. They say "When completed by the end of this year, Lincoln 10.0 will be used in teaching approximately 65% of our classes" - so it's not fully in place yet. They are still investing. They also have new campus openings, relocations, etc. So they are not at a point where they have already built the base and are just riding volume. They are still building. Also, they have increased guidance, but that is based on strong Q1.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.