Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business is unusually low because they have already built and paid for capacity, and that additional business of that kind is already arriving now. Look for statements about capacity, infrastructure, fixed costs, and incoming volume. In the transcript, Tim Laney says: "we remain confident in our ability to grow core earnings and realize our goal of delivering a 1% plus return on assets and $2 plus of earnings per share." That's a goal. Brian Lilly discusses expenses: "we are reiterating the full-year guidance in the low $140 million range, with an expected increase in the second quarter to around $36 million as April’s annual compensation actions and the timing of certain expenses like marketing catch up." That's about expenses, not necessarily about incremental cost being low. He also says: "Given our lack of incremental funding needs, we see time deposit balances decreasing, resulting in total deposit growth in the low single digits." That's about funding. He mentions: "we expect to continue to fund the loan growth with cash flow from the investment portfolio and acquired loan pay downs in addition to deposit growth." That's about funding. He says: "we are forecasting earning assets to increase in the low single digits, ending 2016 in the range of $4.3 billion to $4.5 billion." That's about earning assets. He says: "we have $115 million in excess capital, using a 9% leverage ratio as a target at quarter end. This excess capital gives us flexibility to create value through supporting organic growth, mergers and acquisitions and share buybacks." That's about capital. He says: "Given the profitability that we are building as best demonstrated by the 68 basis points adjusted return on tangible assets delivered this quarter, we do see buying our shares as an excellent investment." That's about buybacks. He says: "we have been active in pursuing a number of opportunities to further leverage our excess capital through M&A and the lift out of teams, but do not have a transaction to share at this point." That's about M&A. He says: "it is certainly nice to see that premium merger prices that have been announced in our marketplace with a general range of 1.3 to 1.8 times tangible book value and a median of 1.5 times.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.