Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, and that additional business is already arriving. Key points from transcript: - Management discusses strategic investments, CRM, digital platform, mobile app, SMS, etc. They are investing in technology and customer engagement. They mention "investments we have made in technology and customer engagement" and "we’ll continue to implement and evolve our CRM strategy." They also mention "we engaged a strategic partner" and "we created a new platform" and "re-launched our mobile app." These are investments, but are they already paid for? They are ongoing. - They talk about store closures and reducing store count. They are closing stores, which reduces capacity. They are not expanding capacity. - They mention "we decided to exercise patience with opening new stores" and "we continue to expect better real estate opportunities" - so they are not building new capacity. - They talk about vendor drop-ship initiative, which will allow customers to select from broader selection without inventory ownership. That is a way to expand assortment without inventory, but it's not necessarily about incremental business riding on existing base. - They talk about Shoe Perks 2.0 launching in Q2, which is to incentivize high value customers. That is a program to drive sales. - They mention "we have taken Shoe Perks data and we developed customer segmentation" - that is using existing data. - They talk about "we are in the process of taking this further and breaking it down to the individual store level" - that is ongoing. - They mention "we will leverage customer insights" - future. - They talk about "we are really excited about how this will shape our future growth" - future. - They mention "we will launch our vendor drop-ship initiative" - future. - They mention "we launched our first brand landing page" - that is done. - They talk about "we accomplished a lot in fiscal 2017 and we believe our efforts will yield benefits in fiscal 2018 and even greater value in fiscal 2019." So benefits are expected in future. - They talk about store closures: "we closed 16 underperforming stores" and "we have reduced the number of store closures for '18" but still plan to close 25-30 stores. So they are shrinking footprint.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.