Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if the management's forward-looking statements in the transcript lay out a timetable of specific conversions—already secured or in motion—with timing attached, and present that schedule as the forward story. Let's examine the transcript. The call is about Q1 2016 results. Management discusses loan growth, energy exposure, expenses, etc. Key forward-looking statements: - Brian Lilly: "we have not included any interest rate increases in our guidance." "Total loans ended the quarter at $2.6 billion and grew slightly from year end as new fundings were offset by higher levels of payments and pay downs." "we look for 2016 to continue to provide good growth opportunities." "we reiterate our prior guidance as we look for our relationship banking model to deliver high single digit transaction deposit growth" etc. - On loan growth: "we have built nice new business pipelines that give us confidence in our ability to deliver on our originations goal to exceed $1 billion this year and to support a full year total loan growth of 15% to 20%." That's pipeline, not secured. - On expenses: "we are reiterating the full-year guidance in the low $140 million range, with an expected increase in the second quarter to around $36 million as April’s annual compensation actions and the timing of certain expenses like marketing catch up." That's just expense timing. - On M&A: "we have been active in pursuing a number of opportunities to further leverage our excess capital through M&A and the lift out of teams, but do not have a transaction to share at this point." So no secured M&A. - On lift outs: Tim Laney says "we have a number of, we think, very interesting lift out opportunities." But that's still opportunities, not secured. - On energy: Rick Newfield discusses energy portfolio, but that's about credit quality, not forward conversions. - On loan growth: "we did have a fair amount of business slide from first quarter to second quarter. I think we’ll learn a lot about ourselves here in the second quarter." That's about timing of existing pipeline, but not specific secured items. - On originations: "C&I originations had been tracking in the trailing four quarters at call it $123 million to $136 million in C&I originations. That declined to $59 million.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.