Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation is the dominant fact, with multiples and repeated doublings, and treating the base as still small. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from management: - Claudio: "another quarter of 60% plus revenue and ARR growth" - that's a growth rate, not necessarily a multiple of recent past, but 60% is a strong growth. However, they say "record net ARR additions" and "record new logo sales" - that's incremental. - They mention "we added 151 net new customers" - that's a number. - "nearly half of new logo business this quarter came from contracts over $100,000 in ARR" - that's a proportion. - "we signed significantly more new deals with ARR greater than US$100,000 compared to the second quarter of 2021" - that's a comparison to previous quarter, not a multiple of a small base. - They talk about "the frequency of the larger enterprise deals has increased" - that's incremental. - They mention "we have seen the momentum in our business accelerate" - that's acceleration. - They talk about "the environment that we have made in our customer experience and success team" - not relevant. - They mention "we are still in the early days of this journey" regarding new products - that's about new products, not the whole company. - They talk about "we expect several more of our [indiscernible] partner to launch commercial offerings starting in 2022" - that's future. - They mention "we are increasing our investment to expand our partnership program further" - that's investment. - They talk about "we have a number of internal initiatives underway" - not relevant. - Sukaran: "total revenue for the period growing to 27.1 million, an increase of 68% from the prior year" - that's a growth rate. - "the 10.2 million net ARR added in the third quarter was the highest ever for Docebo" - that's a record, not a multiple. - "we had 103.5 million in ARR, an increase of 60% over the 64.6 million in ARR at the end of the third quarter of 2020" - that's a growth rate. - "company-wide average contract value, or ACV, increased to $39,000, up 23% from $32,000" - that's a percentage. - "ACV from new customers grew to approximately 59,000 compared to approximately 46,000 in the second quarter" - that's a comparison.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.