Management is buying/committing capital at a price it says the market itself just set against it — cheapness measured ag
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys a deliberate taking on of its own economic exposure because it believes the outside world is mispricing what it has. The key is a concrete mispricing claim and an action in motion. In the transcript, management discusses a share repurchase program. They say: "we unveiled our long-term capital allocation priorities, including a $1.5 billion opportunistic share repurchase program that has the potential to enhance shareholder returns beyond the dividend." Later, when asked about execution, Alan Armstrong says: "we've been pretty clear about how we're thinking about that, and it is a multiple of the cost of our 10-year debt costs of the market per 10-year debt costs, and so you can see that -- that spread with price actually kind of wide -- or did widen. And so that yields continued to go down and there was way from that multiples earned a period since we announced buyback. But I would say as we don't make investment in that or if we continue to invest in earnings, either one of those will continue to drive our credit metrics to more positive place, which will drive down the 10-year debt, which then will improve the price on [Indiscernible] would lower the yield, which we would invest in. I think it's pretty natural in terms of how that will occur if money is flowing in a way that is improving our credit metrics, you would expect our 10-year rate to continue to improve, which we continue to lower the yields and eventually, we would hit a point at which you would be buying back, but we certainly stand ready. And if that price moves to that zone, will be anxious to be taking advantage of that, if that occurs." This indicates that the buyback is conditional on the stock price being low relative to the cost of debt. They have a program but are not executing it yet because the price hasn't reached that zone. They say "if that price moves to that zone" and "we would be buying back" - it's conditional, not currently in motion. They are not currently buying back. They are waiting. So the action is not already in motion; it's contingent on price. Also, they don't explicitly say the market is mispricing the company; they say they have a metric based on debt cost. They don't anchor to a concrete value like asset value or replacement cost. They just say they have a threshold.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| CTHR | Charles & Colvard, Ltd. | Q1 2023 | 2022-11-06 | F |
| SBGI | Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-02 | C |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investment Corp. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-04 | C+ |
TWO · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company deliberately taking on more of its own economic exposure because it believes the outside world is currently mispricing what it already has. YES Management anchors the mispricing to concrete, verifiable levels: mortgage spreads at “historically wide” levels (125–150 bp ZV/OAS, far above the non-QE average and the March 31 levels), RMBS coupons now trading at a wide range (2 %–5.5 %) with 300 bp “out-of-the-money” low-coupon pools and 97 bp OAS–ZV spread differential on higher-coupon names.
ESEA · Q4 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company deliberately taking on more of its own economic exposure because it believes the outside world is currently mispricing what it already has. YES Management anchors the undervaluation claim to a concrete, verifiable figure: their own estimate of the fleet’s market value at $666 million (derived from charter-adjusted values and market changes, incorporating the Aegean Express incident), which produces a net asset value of $344 million or >$48 per share.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company deliberately taking on more of its own economic exposure because it believes the outside world is currently mispricing what it already has. YES Management anchors the undervaluation claim to a concrete benchmark: CoStar trades at ~30x EBITDA while W&D trades at under 10x despite identical revenue and EBITDA growth rates over 5–10 years. They explicitly state there is “plenty of multiple expansion available to W&D.