Mid-period crossings: the quarter's story is things that started during it and are still completing
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript shows both halves of the phenomenon: (1) real starts narrated as starts, and (2) incomplete climb with printed numbers lagging. Let's examine the transcript. The call is about Q2 2023 results. Management discusses various activities. Key points: - Signings: 84 signings year-to-date, far more than 47 in all of '22. But signings are not installations; they are contracts. The question asks about real business activity that crossed from not-happening to happening partway through the period. Signings are not yet transacting; they are agreements. So signings alone don't count as "real starts" unless they lead to installations that began. - Installations: "We also more than doubled installations in Q2 over Q1 of '23 with 20 in the period." That is a real activity: installations are completed and start generating revenue (either through sales or leases). But is this a "start" that crossed from not-happening to happening? Installations are ongoing business; they happen every quarter. The question asks for something that began during or around the period, not routine. However, the installations are part of the normal business. But the transcript also mentions specific deals: "multinational exhibitor Kinopolis, which in May, signed a deal to double its IMAX footprint." That's a signing, not an installation. Also "seven Aon signings from January, which are all installed and off to a strong start." That is a real start: those seven theaters were installed and started operating. That is a concrete piece of business that began. Also "we announced an agreement to sell worldwide rights to our forthcoming documentary, the Blue Angels to Amazon Studios" – that's a deal, but the documentary is forthcoming, not yet released. So that's not a start. - The Oppenheimer release: That's a film release, not a business activity that started in the period? Actually, the period is Q2 2023 (April-June). Oppenheimer was released in July, which is Q3. So that's after the period. So not relevant. - The China business: "IMAX box office in China through mid-July is up more than 150% year-over-year" – that's performance, not a start. - The IMAX China acquisition proposal: That's a proposal, not yet completed. - SSIMWAVE: "we are seeing a positive response with streamings" – that's still early, not a start.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIN | Albany International Corp. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| AFL | Aflac Incorporated | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| HLX | Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B+ |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-06 | A |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-03-02 | B+ |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
AFL · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the Japan Post cancer insurance launch in early April, which began selling the product and drove a 60% sales increase as a major contributor. They describe the activity as real and transacting, with Dan Amos noting the significant contribution from the new product. Yoshizumi confirms gradual increase going forward, and Fred highlights runway for more agents and sales calming down after initial jump, indicating the Q2 numbers reflect partial ramp-up rather than full run-rate.
ESE · Q2 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built around real business activity that started partway through the period, and that the numbers average before and a...YES The transcript shows management's account centered on the real mid-period start of Plastique's contribution (acquired partway through Q2, with two months of performance noted and "early performance consistent with our acquisition forecast"), treated as a key new segment. It also explicitly addresses the incomplete climb, noting that the reported Q 2 numbers lag due to partial contribution and that Q3/Q4 will see fuller periods plus seasonality, with the business already running at a higher level as the ramp continues.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management's account of the just-reported period is built substantially around real business activity that crossed from not-happening to happening partway through the per...YES The transcript shows management centering the Q4 story on the Freeport LPG Export Terminal's real start: commissioning completed smoothly, first commercial cargo shipped mid-December (partial Q4 contribution), with full-quarter costs incurred but only partial revenue, and explicit ramp to near-capacity loading in January onward.