New normal declared and staffed: management says the company's recent level of business has become its new baseline, and
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the level of business is now the new normal, with both halves: (1) higher level already real, framed as new baseline; (2) company operating to that level now. From the transcript: Marcel says "Momentum in our business picked up meaningfully since our last earnings call... RevPAR grew 2% in the second quarter as compared to 2019, marking the first quarter since the onset of the pandemic where quarterly RevPAR exceeded the same period in 2019." That indicates a step-up. He also says "we are in the early innings of a multiyear recovery" and "we are not seeing signs of a meaningful slowdown in demand." He talks about growth opportunities, but does he frame the current level as the new baseline? He says "we have meaningful growth left in our same-property portfolio" and mentions that some markets haven't fully recovered. He also says "we remain very optimistic about our growth prospects." That suggests they see more growth ahead, not that the current level is the new normal. They are still recovering. They mention that July RevPAR is 4% below 2019, so not fully recovered. They talk about "improving corporate transient and group demand" as future drivers. So they are not saying the current level is the new normal; they are saying it's a recovery in progress. Also, they mention "we expect that improving demand from group and corporate transient... will enable our operators to drive occupancy gains in the months and quarters ahead." That indicates they expect further improvement, not that they are at a new baseline. They also discuss guidance for the rest of the year, which implies a slight decline in second half RevPAR compared to 2019, so they are not treating the current level as sustained. They also talk about "the transition from a leisure-driven recovery to one that is more broad-based and likely to be slightly more gradual." So they see it as a transition, not a new normal. There is no indication that they are operating at a higher level that is now the baseline. They are still below 2019 in many metrics. So answer NO. Also, they mention "we are in the early innings" and "we have meaningful growth left" - that suggests they are not at a new normal but still recovering. So NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CME | CME Group Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-27 | B |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | Q4 2022 | 2022-06-22 | B |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | C |
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| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-03-02 | B+ |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-06 | B+ |
UAL · Q4 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the LEVEL OF BUSINESS THE COMPANY IS NOW DOING HAS BECOME ITS NEW NORMAL — that activity which would recently have been exceptional is now the company's cu...YES The transcript shows management framing the post-pandemic operating environment—higher margins, sustained demand recovery, capacity constraints, and investments in staffing/technology—as the new baseline for United's business. Scott Kirby explicitly states that structural changes have set the industry (and United) up for higher margins than pre-pandemic levels, with United achieving 9% adjusted pre-tax margin in H2 2022 ahead of schedule and expecting to hit it again in 2023. They describe current activity (e.g.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the current level of business has become the new normal, meaning activity that would recently have been exceptional is now ordinary, and they're doing r...YES The transcript shows management framing the elevated activity in Safety Assessment (DSA segment) as the new baseline: backlog "well above the prior year level," "significantly above prior year levels," "unprecedented demand," "never seen this sort of commitment that far out with better pricing," and "large portion of 2023 revenue already booked.
DAL · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the LEVEL OF BUSINESS THE COMPANY IS NOW DOING HAS BECOME ITS NEW NORMAL — that activity which would recently have been exceptional is now the company's cu...YES The transcript shows management framing the current performance as the new baseline: record revenue and earnings, "highest quarterly earnings result in our history," "moves Delta beyond recovery and firmly on a great path forward," and executing ahead of the three-year plan with raised full-year guidance.